The British political landscape is bracing for a potential upheaval as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party surges in popularity, threatening to overtake the long-dominant Conservative Party. A recent YouGov survey has revealed that Reform UK now trails the Tories by a mere two points, a stunning development that could herald the demise of one of the world’s most successful political forces.
While the left-wing Labour Party maintains a substantial lead at 40% in the poll, the Conservatives have plummeted to 19%, with Farage’s Reform UK closely following at 17%. This rapid rise for the upstart party, fueled by Farage’s recent return to frontline politics, has sparked warnings of an “extinction-level event” for the Tories.
The Conservative Party’s potential downfall can be attributed to a perceived abandonment of its core principles and broken promises to the electorate. Despite pledges to reduce immigration after Brexit, the Tory government oversaw record-high levels of net migration, reaching a staggering 764,000 in 2022 and an estimated 685,000 in 2023.
Moreover, the Conservatives imposed the highest tax burden since World War II, a departure from their traditional stance as the party of low taxation. This disconnect between rhetoric and action has eroded public trust, creating an opening for Farage’s populist Reform UK to capitalize on the disillusionment.
While the polling industry has sometimes struggled to accurately capture the public mood, particularly regarding populist sentiments, the current figures point to a potential political realignment on a scale unseen in Britain for over a century. The last time a major party was effectively replaced occurred in the early 20th century when the Labour Party supplanted the Liberal Party.
However, Farage and Reform UK face a significant hurdle in the form of the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, which tends to disadvantage smaller parties by failing to translate their national vote share into a proportional number of parliamentary seats.
Nevertheless, even a scenario where Reform UK outperforms the Conservatives in the popular vote could signal the end of Tory dominance and pave the way for a seismic shift akin to the rise of the Reform Party in Canada in the 1990s, which ultimately led to its leader becoming Prime Minister.
