A recent analysis by the New York Times reveals that President Joe Biden’s support among women has dropped to its lowest level for any Democrat since 2004. This decline comes at a critical time as former President Donald Trump now holds an eight-point lead over Biden with female voters.
The analysis raises concerns for Biden’s reelection prospects, especially as women, a crucial demographic for Democrats, are significantly impacted by rising costs. Studies indicate that women make a majority of household purchasing decisions, which may explain their shifting support.
In 2020, Biden had a 13-point lead over Trump among women. However, current polling averages show Trump leading by eight points, a swing of 21 points. This shift is particularly notable among Black and Hispanic women. The analysis found Biden’s margin among Black women has decreased from 86 points in 2020 to 58 points. His lead among Hispanic women has also shrunk to about 12 points.
Inflation appears to be a significant factor in this change. The analysis highlights that many women, particularly Black and Hispanic women, prioritize inflation as their top voting issue. Nearly 60% of Black women in Michigan and a similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona cited inflation as the most important issue affecting their vote.
The KFF survey further supports these findings, indicating that twice as many women believe they were better off financially under Trump. Young women, a key Democratic constituency, are nearly three times more likely to say they were financially better under Trump compared to Biden.
This trend is also reflected in broader polling data showing increased support for Trump among Black and Hispanic voters. Thirty percent of Black men and 11% of Black women intend to vote for Trump in 2024, a significant increase from the 12% of Black men who voted for Trump in 2020. Among Hispanic voters, Trump leads Biden by five points, a dramatic improvement from the 32-point deficit he faced in 2020.
The shifting dynamics among these key demographics could have significant implications for the 2024 election, challenging Biden’s path to reelection and highlighting the critical importance of addressing economic concerns among voters.
