There is a political science concept called ‘the Pendulum Effect.’ In essence, the idea is that American political opinion swings from right to left, then back again. In many ways, the times of true “American Greatness” have been when the so-called pendulum is near the center of its arc.
For the last 20-odd years, the pendulum has been swinging consistently left, but all signs point to its gradual return toward the center and the eventuality of a swing to the right. An early sign of this change could be playing out in New Hampshire right now.
New Hampshire gathers just four electoral college votes in presidential elections, but its status as the first primary has always made this tiny New England state a battleground worth fighting for. According to New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, Democrats have abandoned this locked-up state in favor of more highly contested ground. The confidence that New Hampshire will fall in line with liberal priorities runs directly counter to the state’s prevailing tendency to the “independent-state” mindset held by many of the state’s 1.4 million residents.
Sununu pointed out in an interview with Fox News on September 19 that constituents in the state, which favored President Joe Biden by just 5.4% of just 806,000 votes in 2020, increasingly feel abandoned by the Biden administration and democratic party. A significant source of contention is the elevation of the South Carolina primary headed by Biden and his ties to Rep. Jim Clyburn, widely viewed as the most influential Democrat in the South.
New Hampshire has taken offense to the efforts of South Carolina and other states to become the new New Hampshire, long the first state in the nation to hold presidential primaries and general elections. The Democratic National Convention recently ordered New Hampshire to comply with the decision to move South Carolina’s primary ahead, ending a 50-year tradition and violating a state law in the process.
New Hampshire is viewed as a bellwether state that shows how the rest of New England will go in election cycles. It might not be 2024 that sees a Red Tide in the northeast, but the likelihood that states such as Vermont and Maine slowly turn purple is increasing with every bad decision Democrats make.
Republicans Just Got Blasted in a New Hampshire Special Election Because Zero Lesson Have Been Learnedhttps://t.co/F3j5hCW8la
— RedState (@RedState) September 20, 2023
A big part of the Biden administration’s push to the South, and by extension, the effort made during the Obama administration, is to hold onto the Black vote. Once staunchly Republican, the Black vote has increasingly fallen in line with Democrats who promise significant societal changes to create equality between the races, but the party consistently fails to fulfill campaign promises. Often, Democrat priorities leave Black Americans in the dust as they chase after transgender rights, LGBTQ+ inclusivity, and a general backlash against law and order.
A red New Hampshire is a beacon of hope in the darkness of the Northeast. Flipping those four electoral votes could be the beginning of a decades-long dominance by Republicans, but only if conservatives can capitalize on the moment.