Ohio Republican Primary Heats Up As Polling Numbers Shift

The Ohio midterm election is heating up with two of the Republican candidates going head to head and the others not far behind.

A recent Emerson poll of “very likely voters” places J.D. Vance in the lead with 26%, Josh Mandel just behind at 24%, Matt Dolan at 21% and Mike Gibbons at 17%.

It may seem that there’s a wide spread, but with only a 9% estimation on actual voting numbers, there’s no telling which way the election will go.

Vance has the advantage because former President Donald Trump endorsed him, but Mandel is former Ohio Treasurer which gives him the experience that voters often look for.

Though people still trust Trump’s word, Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist said of Dolan, “I think there’s mounting evidence that he’s in a scenario where he’s running up the middle, unmolested, with a unique message and some things in his favor. Does it mean he has a lock on the race? No way. But it’s a competitive race, and he’s in it. He’s got the momentum, as of last week.” Murphy donated $250 to Dolan’s campaign.

Unfortunately, there are a large number of undecided voters in the Republican party, although many are going to follow the popularity trend. Even with some Trump endorsed primary options that may lose, the Republican party is still very favorable to Trump in an overwhelming majority. There’s an 8 in 10 majority in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Blueprint Polling reported, “The Republican Primary for Senate in Ohio is still anyone’s race with a week remaining, with no candidate above 20% and a third of voters still undecided. Our survey completed over the weekend shows State Senator Matt Dolan leading the pack with 18%, followed closely by J.D. Vance at 17%, Mike Gibbons at 13%, and Josh Mandel at 12%. Dolan benefits from a large lead among self-described moderates; while they make up just 17% of our sample, Dolan has the support of 31% of this group (a 15 point lead over his next-closest opponent). Dolan leads with 22% among voters with a college degree, while Vance leads with 19% among those without one.”

The Blueprint Polling report began on April 21 and ended on April 25, which shows the uptick in estimates for each candidate and the shift from Dolan’s majority to Vance.