Multiple Polls Show Leaked SCOTUS Draft Changed Little Concerning Midterm Elections

Despite a week of political pundits loudly proclaiming that a seismic shift in the midterm elections was created by the leaked Supreme Court draft, new Fox News and CNN polls show it barely registered with the electorate.

A majority of Americans, over 60%, continue to believe that Roe v. Wade should not be completely struck down. The Supreme Court will rule soon on a Mississippi law banning abortions, except under certain conditions, after 15 weeks of pregnancy. The high court looks like it will send the issue back to the states.

A full 59% support congressional action to codify a nationwide right to abortion, but these numbers are in line with results before the leak. The point of contention is at what point abortion restrictions are allowed, and they vary wildly.

The Fox survey shows the six-week ban, which is in place in Texas with the Heartbeat Act, has 50% approval to 46% opposed. Voters approved the Mississippi law, which is before the court, for passage in their home states by 54% to 41%.

The CNN survey of registered voters shows enthusiasm about voting in November is higher than before the explosive leak, but that holds true in both parties.

A telling breakdown is in voter enthusiasm for those “happy” about possibly overturning Roe, which is almost double that of those who would be “angry” at the result by 38% to 20%. Republicans still hold a 49% to 42% edge over Democrats on a generic ballot, which is up slightly from just prior to the leak.

The landscape for the midterm elections continues to be based on economic factors for most Americans. Results show 46% of adults’ positions on the nation’s economy align with the GOP as opposed to 31% with Democrats. Nearly 80% respond that the government is not doing enough to fight inflation, and 66% disapprove of President Joe Biden’s stewardship of the economy.

The importance of the economy in voters’ minds is difficult to overstate. In ranking critical national issues, a full 50% listed the economy as number one, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine far below at 14% and immigration 10%. Abortion was down in single digits.