President-elect Donald Trump has invited Chinese leader Xi Jinping to his Jan. 20 inauguration, but experts say the odds of Xi attending are slim. Trump’s team confirmed the invitation on Thursday, yet analysts argue that Beijing is unlikely to take the diplomatic gamble.
Former assistant secretary of state Danny Russel described the scenario as improbable. “Xi would not reduce himself to being a mere guest celebrating a foreign leader,” Russel said, highlighting the optics of Xi sitting among U.S. officials, many of whom are vocal China critics.
Trump’s history with China adds to the tension. After initially engaging diplomatically during a 2017 visit to Beijing, Trump launched a trade war the following year. With his return to the White House, Trump has already appointed several prominent China hawks to his Cabinet, signaling a confrontational approach.
Taiwan also poses a significant obstacle. Beijing views Taiwan as Chinese territory and has strongly opposed U.S. actions that bolster its international recognition. Taiwan’s presence at President Biden’s 2021 inauguration drew sharp criticism from Beijing, a situation Xi would likely want to avoid.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, noted that Trump’s invitation is unlikely to sway Beijing’s cautious stance. “China is prepared to respond to unfriendly moves like tariffs but won’t take unnecessary risks,” Sun said.
Experts anticipate that Trump and Xi will meet face-to-face during Trump’s early days in office. While Beijing may hope for a more direct dialogue, analysts caution that Trump’s tough rhetoric and policy decisions on China will likely escalate tensions.
